For Whom The Budget Tolls!
Only a few weeks separate us from now and the day of the presentation of budget. The kind of hype and hope that this annual rite evokes is somewhat unusual in other countries. People belonging to all walks of life take very keen interest in each and every word that leaves the lips of the Finance Minister. The budget which is going to be tabled in Parliament this month assumes greater importance in the sense that this is going to be placed in the backdrop of the recession of the last year which gripped the world economy. The shadows of the recession are still there in all parts of our life. Although there are some encouraging signs of a mild recovery but it seems still our economy has to travel some distance before we can say the worst is over.
The question that must be troubling all, whether the Finance Minister is going to continue with special economic package or roll it back gradually. And if the monetary policy announced by the Reserve Bank of India is anything to go by, the government may be thinking in that direction and the budget is likely to confirm it.
As far as the Finance Minister is concerned ,he has reasons to feel happy over the figures furnished by the Central Statistical Organization which predicts that the economy would grow at 7.2% and which means the he can now think in terms of withdrawing some of concessions and deploy the resources elsewhere. If one looks at the composition of this government, there two vital allies- Trinamul Congress and DMK and these two political parties may not allow the Finance Minister to embark upon a very reform initiative. As salaries and pension, interest payments , defence expenditure and subsidy gobble up almost 60% of the government expenditure, that hardly leaves any room for maneuvering for him. However one can expect some rise in the social and infrastructure sectors.
No major expectations should be harbored in the realm of Income Tax in the form of reliefs and rebates. The rate of excise duty which was greatly reduced in the wake of the recession, may come under scrutiny. Another important aspect that the budget this year has to deal with, is GST- Goods and Services Tax which the corporate sector looking up to with great interest. How the government effects a smooth transition to the new system remains to be seen.
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